2021 Oscar Predictions & Thoughts

Over the past few months, I've been thinking about restarting this movie blog I created 10+(!) years ago, and while having two kids would make it pretty hard to keep up with, I did start writing a Facebook post about Sunday night's Oscar Ceremony. It quickly turned into more than a simple post, and so I figured why not post something here just to see what kind of comments I get. No clue if anyone even still uses Blogger or not, but here it goes...

This year marks the third year in a row I was able to see every nominated film before Oscar Night. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but check out this Letterboxd List to see how many you've seen.

And so, while no one asked for it, I figured I may have some unique insight on what might happen tonight (looks like after editing, I'm going to be posting this a little after midnight). I'm giving a prediction for each category along with who I'd vote for if I were in the Academy (Will vs Should)

Best Picture

Will: Nomadland                                        Should: Minari

Minari was my #3 film of 2020 (behind Hamilton & Derek Delgaudio’s In & Of Itself—both of which are filmed stage productions and not really movies). Nomadland was actually my least favorite of the 8 Best Picture nominees, so if/when it wins tonight I'll be pretty sad.

Best Actor

Will: Chadwick Boseman (MRBB)             Should: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Choosing Hopkins over Boseman for my Should was a very difficult choice. Boseman was fantastic in MRBB (even more so knowing he was silently struggling with cancer during filming) & I am gutted that we won’t see him in any more roles, but Hopkins did such a great job portraying the horrors & confusion of dementia. I won’t be upset if/when Boseman wins posthumously though. 

Best Actress

Will: Viola Davis (MRBB)                            Should: Carey Mulligan (PYW)

Another very difficult choice—for both Will & Should this time. Davis did great again in another fantastic August Wilson adaptation & I fear maybe she won’t win again (despite this role being nothing like her role in Fences). I’ve loved Mulligan ever since An Education & Never Let Me Go and her performance in PYW is spectacular. Day is the one good thing in The United States vs Billie Holiday (that voice!) and Kirby made losing a child feel all too real in Pieces of a Woman. Even though McDormand stood out a little around her Nomadland co”stars,” she’s still Frances m-f-ing McDormand! The best slate of nominees this year—all very deserving!

Best Supporting Actor

Will: Daniel Kaluuya (J&tBM)                    Should: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Listen, Kaluuya is great as the charismatic & influential Fred Hampton but then I found out that Hampton was 21 when he was murdered by the FBI & Chicago police and Kaluuya is 30+. I wonder how much more powerful the film would have been with age-appropriate actors. Raci just blew me away in the center third of SoM (and he’s the perfect age for a fictional character!) 

Best Supporting Actress

Will: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)                      Should: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Bakalova was fantastic in Borat 2 & I hope this nomination gives her more opportunities in Hollywood, but Youn was even better as the comic relief in Minari. She steals every scene she’s in (in a fantastic way).

Best Director

Will: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)                    Should: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Zhao’s the overwhelming frontrunner here and she did great directing so many nonprofessional actors & producing a very pretty film, but it was such a slow, boring film that could not keep my attention. Chung, however, directed some great performances from children (just as difficult as nonprofessionals) & created a fascinating story of family struggle 

Best Original Screenplay

Will: Promising Young Woman                     Should: Minari

This is a coin toss for me on Should—I’ve already said Minari was my #3 film of 2020 and PYW was my #5 (with the animated film, Wolfwalkers in #4). I had seen a website several weeks ago that had all ten nominated screenplays available for download—I wish I had the time to read all of them since screenplays are often very different from the final film. However, with Minari & PYW both being written by their respective directors (Emerald Fennell & Lee Isaac Chung, respectively), I have to imagine the final films have to be pretty close to their original scripts.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will: The Father                                          Should: The Father

The conceit of The Father (showing what it's like to suffer from dementia by having all the supporting cast, set design, and timeline change scene by scene) seemed so obvious, and yet I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard of anything like it before.

Best Cinematography

Will: Nomadland                                        Should: Nomadland

The one thing Nomadland had going for it was the sheer beauty of the American landscape. Even the scenes set in an Amazon warehouse or a beet processing plant looked great.

Best Editing

Will: The Trial of the Chicago 7                 Should: The Trial of the Chicago 7

I had issues with the ending and some of the direction, but the editing (especially some of the cutting between trial and protest) was fantastic.

Best Production Design

Will: Mank                                                  Should: The Father

How Mank got so many nominations I’ll never know! (I guess the Academy likes movies about making movies.) It’s pretty and made me want to rewatch Citizen Kane but The Father literally had to do Production Design 3 or 4 times on the same set to keep changing the layout on poor Anthony Hopkins.

Best Costume Design

Will: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom                 Should: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

First, shout out to Trish Summerville for this:

If the award was for Best Single Costume, she’d definitely win it. Also, Emma and Pinocchio both had some gorgeous costumes, but only MRBB made me horny for an $11 pair of shoes. 

Best Sound

Will: Sound of Metal                                    Should: Sound of Metal

It does amazing work (I can only assume) recreating the main character’s slow loss of hearing. I mean, it’s right there in the name! Maybe next year someone will make Picture of Metal to win Best Picture.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Will: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom                   Should: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

I wish I could see before/after shots from each film showing off the makeup. I saw some amazing work in Pinocchio, and the Hillbilly Elegy team did amazing work making Glenn Close look like the real person she's portraying, but I'm sticking with MRBB.

Best Original Score

Will: Soul                                                  Should: Soul

Howard's score in News of the World was the only one that made my 240-character Twitter review (but it was also the only one of the five I watched AFTER the nominations were announced). I wish I had time to listen to each score in its entirety. Some excerpts from Minari sounded great but I'm going with Reznor, Ross, & Batiste. 

Best Original Song

Will: "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)       Should: "Husavik" (Eurovision...)

"Speak Now" is a gorgeous song, sung beautifully by Leslie Odom Jr. but "Husavik" is beautiful, yet haunting, yet funny. It's a shame Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga was so hit or miss (most of the misses coming from Ferrell)

Best Visual Effects

Will: Tenet                                                     Should: Tenet

Regarding the time-inverted special effects in Tenet, Christopher Nolan was so preoccupied with whether or not he could that he didn't stop to think if he should. But were the effects worth failing to write a good story or pay for decent sound mixing if it wins his film an Oscar? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Best Documentary Feature

Will: My Octopus Teacher                            Should: Collective

Last year's Honeyland got noms for Best Doc & Best Int'l Feature just like this year's Collective, but it went home with nothing & I fear Collective may follow... However, Collective was my #6 of 2020 & I think it deserves to win best Documentary. Unfortunately, My Octopus Teacher is probably going to win despite it being the 11th worst film I saw in 2020…

Best Documentary Short

Will: A Love Song for Latasha                        Should: Colette

A Love Song for Latasha is sadly ever-relevant but Colette was my favorite of this year's slate. I had no idea I was sitting down to watch a short film about the horrors of the Holocaust when I watched it during a lunch break. That was the most I ever cried during lunch!

Best Animated Feature

Will: Soul                                                    Should: Wolfwalkers

Pixar's Soul is great (my #12 of 2020) and while Wolfwalkers is also a 4.5* film along with Soul, I think it's just a little better (#4). The hand-drawn animation style took some getting used to (a lot of the backgrounds are sort of flat—it's a weird perspective thing) but the story is as good as any Pixar/Studio Ghibli film. If you have Apple TV+, give it a watch!

Best Animated Short

Will: If Anything Happens I Love You             Should: Opera

Opera is a fascinating little short that I immediately rewatched after it finished. There are dozens (hundreds?) of little details crammed into 9 minutes, and I feel like every repeat viewing would just uncover more things I didn't catch before. Very ambitious—I wish I could see it on repeat on the big screen. But, I won't be upset if/when IAHILY takes home the Oscar.

Best Live Action Short

Will: The Letter Room                                 Should: The Present

The Present was a fascinating look at the struggle a father & daughter go through to do some shopping on the other side of a checkpoint. I know very little about the ins & outs of Israeli/Palestinian relations, but damn if this short didn't make me hate walls & border crossings. There's some buzz around Two Distant Strangers possibly winning, and if it does I'll be so pissed. I have no idea how a 0* "film" got nominated. It's just an exploitative P.O.S. with good acting from the lead (and no one else). Here's hoping Oscar Isaac's star power wins it for The Letter Room instead.

Best International Feature

Will: Another Round                                  Should: Another Round

This is the only time I'm saying I think a film Should win when it wasn't the highest-rated film of the nominees. I think Collective is a better film (my #6 of 2020), but I also feel like it's more deserving of the Best Documentary award, while Another Round (my #15) is the better International film. Collective felt like a fascinating documentary that just so happened to take place in Romania. Another Round felt like a fantastic Danish film (if that distinction makes any sense). Plus, it's got Mads Mikkelsen experimenting on how day drinking helps him & his friends perform better as teachers! 

If you've made it this far, thank you! I have no idea how right or wrong I'll be but it was fun to write a little more about these films before the ceremony. Feel free to leave a comment about who you think will/should win below!

Fatal Attraction (1987)

#2 - 1987 Box Office: Gross $156,645,693

A look that led to an evening

Adrian Lyne directs this thriller about infidelity.  Dan Gallagher (Michael Douglas) is a New York lawyer with a wife (Anne Archer) and young daughter.  When the girls leave for the weekend, he has a short affair with Alex Forrest (Glenn Close), whom he met at a work party.  However, Alex doesn't want the affair to end when Dan's family returns.  She slits her wrists, tries to buy his affection with opera tickets, stalks his family and even kidnaps his daughter for a day out at an amusement park.  Dan moves out of the city, changes his number and tries to ignore Alex, but sometimes affection becomes obsession and you can't outrun crazy.

Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves (1991)

#2 - 1991 Box Office: Gross $165,493,908

Sometimes the only way to uphold justice...is to break the law

During a prison escape with his friend Peter, Robin of Locksley (Kevin Costner) saves the life of Azeem (Morgan Freeman) and the two survive thanks to Peter's self-sacrifice.  Azeem follows Robin back to England to pay back the debt of saving his life, however Robin's homecoming is tainted by the Sheriff of Nottingham (Alan Rickman) who has killed Robin's father.  Robin meets Little John (Nick Brimble), Will Scarlet (Christian Slater) and a bunch of other Merry Men in Sherwood Forest and soon leads them to fight against the Sheriff, who himself has begun to aggressively court Marian (Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio), sister of the dead Peter, who Robin promised to protect.

Rambo: First Blood Part II (1985)

#2 - 1985 Box Office: Gross $150,415,432

What most people call hell, he calls home

George P. Cosmatos's film opens with John Rambo (Sylvester Stallone) in a labor prison camp, presumably convicted for the events of First Blood*. He is visited by Col. Trautman (Richard Crenna) who offers him a way out of prison, with a full pardon.  A bureaucrat named Murdock (Charles Napier) wants Rambo to parachute into Vietnam and do reconnaissance regarding American POWs—but under no circumstances is Rambo supposed to engage the enemy.  This is simply a fact-finding mission.  However, Rambo loves his country too much to let other US soldiers be tortured and killed and so he soon becomes a one-man army fighting the Vietnamese, Soviets, and even the Americans who sent him on the impossible mission.

Forrest Gump (1994)

#1 - 1994 Box Office: Gross $329,694,499

The story of a lifetime

Robert Zemeckis directs this adaptation of Winston Groom's 1986 novel, which tells the story of a simple man (Tom Hanks) who travels across the world, unwittingly finding himself in the middle of major historical events of the 20th Century. Whether it's at the integration of University of Alabama or a protest rally headed by Abbie Hoffman at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Gump finds himself meeting Presidents and influential people throughout his life.  However, he almost always is drawn back to his childhood friend, Jenny (Robin Wright) who never judged Forrest.  He spends some time in Vietnam and makes a lifelong friend in his Lieutenant, Lt. Dan (Gary Sinese). Sally Field plays his long-suffering mother while many other famous figures (e.g. JFK) costar thanks to Industrial Light & Magic.

Alice in Wonderland (2010)

#2 - 2010 Box Office: Gross $334,191,110

You're invited to a very important date

At a lavish garden party, 19-year-old Alice (Mia Wasikowska) struggles to meet the expectations of her friends and family.  In order to escape an unwanted marriage proposal, Alice chases a rabbit in a waistcoat (Michael Sheen) and falls down a large hole.  Here, she reenters Underland, a world she visited when she was six and always thought was a dream (calling it "Wonderland").  The characters from her dream are all here—Mad Hatter (Johnny Depp), Cheshire Cat (Stephen Fry), Caterpillar (Alan Rickman)—and they tell her she is destined to slay the Red Queen's (Helena Bonham Carter) Jabberwocky (Christopher Lee) and help the White Queen (Anne Hathaway) return to power.

Toy Story 3 (2010)

#1 - 2010 Box Office: Gross $415,004,880

No toy gets left behind

Woody (Tom Hanks), Buzz (Tim Allen), Jessie (Joan Cusack) and the rest of the toys return for part three, as Andy (John Morris) prepares to head off to college.  A mixup leads the toys to believe Andy wanted to throw them away, so they escape to Sunnyside, a local daycare center.  Here, they're welcomed with open arms by Lotso (Ned Beatty), Ken (Michael Keaton) and several other new toys. However, they soon realize their warm welcome is simply because their presence allows present toys to escape the horrors seen in the youngest room. Woody, found and taken home by imaginative young Bonnie, employs the help of her toys—Mr. Pricklepants (Timothy Dalton), Trixie (Kristen Schaal), Buttercup (Jeff Garlin), et al—to return to Sunnyside, break his friends out of their prison and return to Andy before he leaves for college...