2021 Oscar Predictions & Thoughts

Over the past few months, I've been thinking about restarting this movie blog I created 10+(!) years ago, and while having two kids would make it pretty hard to keep up with, I did start writing a Facebook post about Sunday night's Oscar Ceremony. It quickly turned into more than a simple post, and so I figured why not post something here just to see what kind of comments I get. No clue if anyone even still uses Blogger or not, but here it goes...

This year marks the third year in a row I was able to see every nominated film before Oscar Night. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but check out this Letterboxd List to see how many you've seen.

And so, while no one asked for it, I figured I may have some unique insight on what might happen tonight (looks like after editing, I'm going to be posting this a little after midnight). I'm giving a prediction for each category along with who I'd vote for if I were in the Academy (Will vs Should)

Best Picture

Will: Nomadland                                        Should: Minari

Minari was my #3 film of 2020 (behind Hamilton & Derek Delgaudio’s In & Of Itself—both of which are filmed stage productions and not really movies). Nomadland was actually my least favorite of the 8 Best Picture nominees, so if/when it wins tonight I'll be pretty sad.

Best Actor

Will: Chadwick Boseman (MRBB)             Should: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Choosing Hopkins over Boseman for my Should was a very difficult choice. Boseman was fantastic in MRBB (even more so knowing he was silently struggling with cancer during filming) & I am gutted that we won’t see him in any more roles, but Hopkins did such a great job portraying the horrors & confusion of dementia. I won’t be upset if/when Boseman wins posthumously though. 

Best Actress

Will: Viola Davis (MRBB)                            Should: Carey Mulligan (PYW)

Another very difficult choice—for both Will & Should this time. Davis did great again in another fantastic August Wilson adaptation & I fear maybe she won’t win again (despite this role being nothing like her role in Fences). I’ve loved Mulligan ever since An Education & Never Let Me Go and her performance in PYW is spectacular. Day is the one good thing in The United States vs Billie Holiday (that voice!) and Kirby made losing a child feel all too real in Pieces of a Woman. Even though McDormand stood out a little around her Nomadland co”stars,” she’s still Frances m-f-ing McDormand! The best slate of nominees this year—all very deserving!

Best Supporting Actor

Will: Daniel Kaluuya (J&tBM)                    Should: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Listen, Kaluuya is great as the charismatic & influential Fred Hampton but then I found out that Hampton was 21 when he was murdered by the FBI & Chicago police and Kaluuya is 30+. I wonder how much more powerful the film would have been with age-appropriate actors. Raci just blew me away in the center third of SoM (and he’s the perfect age for a fictional character!) 

Best Supporting Actress

Will: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)                      Should: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Bakalova was fantastic in Borat 2 & I hope this nomination gives her more opportunities in Hollywood, but Youn was even better as the comic relief in Minari. She steals every scene she’s in (in a fantastic way).

Best Director

Will: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)                    Should: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Zhao’s the overwhelming frontrunner here and she did great directing so many nonprofessional actors & producing a very pretty film, but it was such a slow, boring film that could not keep my attention. Chung, however, directed some great performances from children (just as difficult as nonprofessionals) & created a fascinating story of family struggle 

Best Original Screenplay

Will: Promising Young Woman                     Should: Minari

This is a coin toss for me on Should—I’ve already said Minari was my #3 film of 2020 and PYW was my #5 (with the animated film, Wolfwalkers in #4). I had seen a website several weeks ago that had all ten nominated screenplays available for download—I wish I had the time to read all of them since screenplays are often very different from the final film. However, with Minari & PYW both being written by their respective directors (Emerald Fennell & Lee Isaac Chung, respectively), I have to imagine the final films have to be pretty close to their original scripts.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will: The Father                                          Should: The Father

The conceit of The Father (showing what it's like to suffer from dementia by having all the supporting cast, set design, and timeline change scene by scene) seemed so obvious, and yet I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard of anything like it before.

Best Cinematography

Will: Nomadland                                        Should: Nomadland

The one thing Nomadland had going for it was the sheer beauty of the American landscape. Even the scenes set in an Amazon warehouse or a beet processing plant looked great.

Best Editing

Will: The Trial of the Chicago 7                 Should: The Trial of the Chicago 7

I had issues with the ending and some of the direction, but the editing (especially some of the cutting between trial and protest) was fantastic.

Best Production Design

Will: Mank                                                  Should: The Father

How Mank got so many nominations I’ll never know! (I guess the Academy likes movies about making movies.) It’s pretty and made me want to rewatch Citizen Kane but The Father literally had to do Production Design 3 or 4 times on the same set to keep changing the layout on poor Anthony Hopkins.

Best Costume Design

Will: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom                 Should: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

First, shout out to Trish Summerville for this:

If the award was for Best Single Costume, she’d definitely win it. Also, Emma and Pinocchio both had some gorgeous costumes, but only MRBB made me horny for an $11 pair of shoes. 

Best Sound

Will: Sound of Metal                                    Should: Sound of Metal

It does amazing work (I can only assume) recreating the main character’s slow loss of hearing. I mean, it’s right there in the name! Maybe next year someone will make Picture of Metal to win Best Picture.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Will: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom                   Should: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

I wish I could see before/after shots from each film showing off the makeup. I saw some amazing work in Pinocchio, and the Hillbilly Elegy team did amazing work making Glenn Close look like the real person she's portraying, but I'm sticking with MRBB.

Best Original Score

Will: Soul                                                  Should: Soul

Howard's score in News of the World was the only one that made my 240-character Twitter review (but it was also the only one of the five I watched AFTER the nominations were announced). I wish I had time to listen to each score in its entirety. Some excerpts from Minari sounded great but I'm going with Reznor, Ross, & Batiste. 

Best Original Song

Will: "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)       Should: "Husavik" (Eurovision...)

"Speak Now" is a gorgeous song, sung beautifully by Leslie Odom Jr. but "Husavik" is beautiful, yet haunting, yet funny. It's a shame Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga was so hit or miss (most of the misses coming from Ferrell)

Best Visual Effects

Will: Tenet                                                     Should: Tenet

Regarding the time-inverted special effects in Tenet, Christopher Nolan was so preoccupied with whether or not he could that he didn't stop to think if he should. But were the effects worth failing to write a good story or pay for decent sound mixing if it wins his film an Oscar? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Best Documentary Feature

Will: My Octopus Teacher                            Should: Collective

Last year's Honeyland got noms for Best Doc & Best Int'l Feature just like this year's Collective, but it went home with nothing & I fear Collective may follow... However, Collective was my #6 of 2020 & I think it deserves to win best Documentary. Unfortunately, My Octopus Teacher is probably going to win despite it being the 11th worst film I saw in 2020…

Best Documentary Short

Will: A Love Song for Latasha                        Should: Colette

A Love Song for Latasha is sadly ever-relevant but Colette was my favorite of this year's slate. I had no idea I was sitting down to watch a short film about the horrors of the Holocaust when I watched it during a lunch break. That was the most I ever cried during lunch!

Best Animated Feature

Will: Soul                                                    Should: Wolfwalkers

Pixar's Soul is great (my #12 of 2020) and while Wolfwalkers is also a 4.5* film along with Soul, I think it's just a little better (#4). The hand-drawn animation style took some getting used to (a lot of the backgrounds are sort of flat—it's a weird perspective thing) but the story is as good as any Pixar/Studio Ghibli film. If you have Apple TV+, give it a watch!

Best Animated Short

Will: If Anything Happens I Love You             Should: Opera

Opera is a fascinating little short that I immediately rewatched after it finished. There are dozens (hundreds?) of little details crammed into 9 minutes, and I feel like every repeat viewing would just uncover more things I didn't catch before. Very ambitious—I wish I could see it on repeat on the big screen. But, I won't be upset if/when IAHILY takes home the Oscar.

Best Live Action Short

Will: The Letter Room                                 Should: The Present

The Present was a fascinating look at the struggle a father & daughter go through to do some shopping on the other side of a checkpoint. I know very little about the ins & outs of Israeli/Palestinian relations, but damn if this short didn't make me hate walls & border crossings. There's some buzz around Two Distant Strangers possibly winning, and if it does I'll be so pissed. I have no idea how a 0* "film" got nominated. It's just an exploitative P.O.S. with good acting from the lead (and no one else). Here's hoping Oscar Isaac's star power wins it for The Letter Room instead.

Best International Feature

Will: Another Round                                  Should: Another Round

This is the only time I'm saying I think a film Should win when it wasn't the highest-rated film of the nominees. I think Collective is a better film (my #6 of 2020), but I also feel like it's more deserving of the Best Documentary award, while Another Round (my #15) is the better International film. Collective felt like a fascinating documentary that just so happened to take place in Romania. Another Round felt like a fantastic Danish film (if that distinction makes any sense). Plus, it's got Mads Mikkelsen experimenting on how day drinking helps him & his friends perform better as teachers! 

If you've made it this far, thank you! I have no idea how right or wrong I'll be but it was fun to write a little more about these films before the ceremony. Feel free to leave a comment about who you think will/should win below!