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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Oscar Predictions

Well, life has been pretty hectic as of late... I'm sorry to anyone who actually was following me and has been missing my MLiF blogs... I knew I wouldn't be able to keep this up all year, but I was really proud for staying with it or a few weeks at least.  Hopefully, I'll have more time before my next show starts rehearsing in April (although I'm traveling to CA and FL in March, so we'll see)

Anyway, I figured I'd throw my hat in the ring since I've been seeing so many Oscar Prediction blogs... Especially since this is probably the last year where I'll see 90% of the nominees.

If you've read my MySpace/Facebook notes in previous years, you know I usually break down the Oscar nominations into The Big Eight (Film, Director, both Actor/Actress and both Writing categories) which I usually do pretty well at.  This year, there were only 16 different films in these 8 categories, and after I watch Blue Valentine this afternoon, I'll have seen 14 of them (missing only Another Year and Biutiful)

Then, I split off the five smaller categories (Documentary Feature & Short, Live Action & Animated Shorts & Foreign Language Films) because these are usually pretty hard to come across.  This past year I did better than ever before with 6 of the 25 nominees, having seen Greek film Dogtooth, Pixar's animated short Day & Night and 4 of the 5 Best Doc films: Exit Through the Gift Shop, GasLand, Inside Job & Restrepo

Without these five small categories, there are 19 categories left and this year these categories held 32 different films with a total of 95 nominations.  Last year, I watched the ceremony with 29/34 films (85.3%) & 89/96 nominations (92.7%) under my belt while this year, I'll have 28/32 films (87.5%) & 91/95 nominations (95.8%) seen!

All that to say that I've seen a lot, so I should be pretty good at predicting the winners, right?  HA! If only it were that easy... But still, I'll tell you what I predicted in an Oscar pool and we can see how poorly I'll do this year

Let's start with these little crappy categories (films I've seen are bolded)

Documentary, Feature
-Exit Through the Gift Shop
-Inside Job
-Waste Land

Even though I enjoyed Exit Through the Gift Shop and Restrepo more, I think the Academy will award the Oscar to Inside Job.

Documentary, Short Subject
-Killing in the Name
-Poster Girl
-Strangers No More
-Sun Come Up
-The Warriors of Quigang

Since none of these are about the Holocaust and I haven't seen any of them, I'm just going to randomly pick Strangers No More—a film about kids in some Tel Aviv school or something....

Live Action Short
-The Confession
-The Crush
-God of Love
-Na Wewe
-Wish 143

Na Wewe is about the genocide in the Burundi Civil War (so says IMDb) which sounds as close to the Holocaust as any of the other shorts (I've found the Academy loves WWII shorts so, why not?)

Animated Short
-Day & Night
-The Gruffalo
-Let's Pollute
-The Lost Thing
-Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I loved Pixar's Day & Night but I've been burned in the past hoping the Academy would reward the Pixar Short creators... So this year I'm going against my gut and choosing Madagascar, a Journey Diary (which isn't related to the Ben Stiller/Chris Rock series of films)

Foreign Language Film
-Biutiful (Mexico)
-Dogtooth (Greece)
-In A Better World (Denmark)
-Incendies (Canada)
-Outside the Law (Algeria)

Last random pick here... I'm going with In A Better World because on a multiple choice test, the answer is always C.

Now we get into the big 19 categories where I've seen most of the nominees!

Visual Effects
-Alice in Wonderland
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
-Iron Man 2

I have no idea how Inception will lose this category... That hallway fight scene alone deserves the win, and that doesn't take into account any of the other miniature visual effects, etc. in the rest of the film.

Sound Mixing
-The Social Network
-TRON: Legacy
-True Grit

Sound Editing
-Toy Story 3
-TRON: Legacy
-True Grit

The two Sound categories are always a confusion to me... I'm going to guess the popular Inception will win both categories...

Original Score
-127 Hours
-How to Train Your Dragon
-The King's Speech
-The Social Network

I'm predicting a King's Sweep so I'm giving the award to The King's Speech in nearly every category it's nominated in... I loved Social Network and TRON: Legacy's scores but I think The King's Speech will walk away with the win tonight.

Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"Coming Home" - Country Strong
"I See The Light" - Tangled
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3

This is actually a pretty tough category to choose this year... "If I Rise" is the only song I don't really remember, and the other three are all strong contenders... I don't think this is Randy's best, but I still think his "We Belong Together" will walk away with a win tonight (even if Tangled's song fit so much better)

-Barney's Version
-The Way Back
-The Wolfman

While the film sucked, I think the amount of effects in The Wolfman will help it win the trophy tonight.  I was impressed with the effects in The Way Back but I think it was even less-seen than that crappy werewolf flick...

Costume Design
-Alice in Wonderland
-I Am Love
-The King's Speech
-The Tempest
-True Grit

The King's Speech

Art Direction
-Alice in Wonderland
-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
-The King's Speech
-True Grit

A King's Speech ... Is this lazy? Probably... But what if I'm right?

-127 Hours
-Black Swan
-The Fighter
-The King's Speech
-The Social Network

Here's one of the categories I'm predicting something to topple the King's Sweep... I think the editing in The Social Network is just brilliant... From the past to present, the making of Facebook to two different dispositions... And yet the story is never lost, in fact it's enhanced by this back and forth... Brilliant!

-Black Swan
-The King's Speech
-The Social Network
-True Grit

I loved the camerawork throughout True Grit and hope Roger Deakins will finally win an Oscar after eight losses!

Animated Feature
-How to Train Your Dragon
-The Illusionist
-Toy Story 3

I loved How to Train Your Dragon and would probably vote for that myself, but with a Best Picture nomination, I can't see how Pixar can't win another Oscar for Toy Story 3.

Adapted Screenplay
-127 Hours
-The Social Network
-Toy Story 3
-True Grit
-Winter's Bone

On first viewing, I was disappointed with Aaron Sorkin's script—I expected more.  But on second viewing I really loved the film and think he'll win an Oscar for his work on The Social Network.

Original Screenplay
-Another Year
-The Fighter
-The Kids are All Right
-The King's Speech

Did you know that the writer of The King's Speech, David Seidler himself used to suffer from a stutter?  I think that's why his script was so amazing.  There are clever little moments that feel so real, you know the author has a real connection to the material.  (I would LOVE Inception to win but think it'll have to be happy with its smaller category wins)

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

If you saw The Fighter, I hope you stuck around for the final credits to see the real brothers on camera.  In this moment, I know Bale would win the Oscar because his portrayal of Dicky Ecklund was spot on.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom

This is surprisingly a strong category and probably one of the hardest of the Top Eight for me to choose... I'm going with Melissa Leo because I think the Academy will award her for her work in The Fighter, however I think she's probably the weakest performance in the bunch.  I would love to see Steinfeld win for her role in True Grit just because it's great to see young actors rewarded for their work, but I think Jackie Weaver would be my personal pick as a truly evil mother in Animal Kingdom.

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours

Congrats Colin Firth, there's no way you're not w-w-w-winning for your w-w-w-work in The King's Speech


Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Hopefully this win for Natalie Portman will convince her to tackle more sexy lesbian roles. :-)

Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Coen Bros. - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O'Russell - The Fighter

I would love to see Fincher win for The Social Network but very rarely do the Best Picture and Best Director winners come from different films, so my guess is Tom Hooper to win tonight.

-127 Hours
-Black Swan
-The Fighter
-The Kids Are All Right
-The King's Speech
-The Social Network
-Toy Story 3
-True Grit
-Winter's Bone

Well, I think the big winner tonight will be The King's Speech... Which is funny cause I don't know if it'll make my Top Ten (which I'm still working on!)

Which predictions do you think I have right? Which ones do you think I'm completely wrong about?  What do you think will win the top prize?

1 comment:

  1. 8/8 in the Big Eight categories! Woo-hoo!

    Missed the Live Action and Animated Shorts (whatever) along with Original Score (Academy actually went with the better score rather than A King's Sweep), Costume Design & Art Direction (stupid Alice in Wonderland) and Cinematography (Deakins is now 0 for 9)